Red One was supposed to be Dwayne Johnson’s next big blockbuster hit, but I’ll be shocked if it manages to snap his current cold streak at the box office. Once known for being “franchise viagra” and injecting IP with financial upside, The Rock became a one-man solution for struggling franchises and blockbusters over the years. His sustained popularity with audiences helped make Red One the latest attempt for him to launch a new, original franchise. The Christmas-themed blockbuster comes from Amazon Studios and holds an exclusive theatrical release for November 2024, which will further test Dwayne Johnson’s box office credibility.

The Rock is no stranger to delivering massive box office hits with original ideas or movies based on IP that otherwise had not been tackled. Even if I didn’t enjoy every movie like San Andreas, Rampage, or Skyscraper, they are clear examples of his star power working wonders at the box office. It is still easy to look at him and see a bankable actor who revived multiple franchises and found success away from them, even with The Rock’s biggest box office bombs. But after the last few years, I have doubts about him doing it again with Red One.

Dwayne Johnson Hasn’t Starred In A Major Box Office Hit Since 2019

He’s In A Slump

The cold, hard truth for Dwayne Johnson is that his standing as a consistent box office star has faded in recent years. The last time I can honestly say that he was the star of a big blockbuster that performed well at the box office was in 2019. He delivered two notable hits that year, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw and Jumanji: The Next Level, which both made over $750 million worldwide. That was the end of a dominant run of roughly six years where his only real misstep was 2017’s Baywatch.

Since 2019, Dwayne Johnson has not been the lead in any movie that has lived up to his reputation. Part of this is due to COVID-19 and theaters shutting down, but the rise of streaming and poorly reviewed blockbusters are also factors. Johnson’s cold streak at the box office officially began with Jungle Cruise’s release in 2021. The live-action Disney movie based on the theme park ride only made $210 million against a $200 million budget. Although it did add at least $45 million in sales through Disney+ (via Deadline), it still goes down as a financial loss.

The more surprising development to me was Dwayne Johnson’s cold streak extending in 2022 with two DC movies. DC League of Super Pets made $200 million at the box office, which likely means it broke even. But, that total was still frankly underwhelming considering the DC branding, star-studded voice cast, and how often animated movies can hit much bigger thanks to being family-friendly entertainment. It only got worse with Black Adam’s box office finishing at $390 million, resulting in conflicting reports of the film’s profitability or failure.

To help put Dwayne Johnson’s cold streak in perspective, he is currently in the midst of his longest drought in over a decade without a leading role in a movie that made over $400 million. The last time he went more than two years without a $400 million earner was before he joined Fast & Furious and became a star that could draw in that much business. Furthermore, four out of five movies he starred in before Jungle Cruise hit that benchmark, with Skyscraper’s $300 million the lone exception – and that was still enough to be profitable.

Red One Looks Like A Risky Box Office Bet On Dwayne Johnson

The Movie Is Not A Guaranteed Hit

After looking over Dwayne Johnson’s recent box office run, I’m quite surprised that Amazon Studios would take the bet on Red One as a theatrical release. This could have made sense when Johnson was still at the peak of his powers. A Christmas-set action movie blockbuster co-starring Chris Evans and re-teaming Johnson with his Jumanji movie director Jake Kasdan sounds like a win on paper. I know I was excited for it when it was first announced. However, the trailers have been less than encouraging, as have the behind-the-scenes reports and multiple delays.

What is truly puzzling about Amazon’s Red One release plan is that they had an easy way to avoid the movie being viewed as a potential box office flop. The original plan for the film was to give it an exclusive streaming release on Prime Video in 2023. I have no doubt that Red One would’ve been a huge hit on Prime Video as families could watch it together around the holidays. There is now a bet on Johnson drawing millions of people to theaters instead. That’s a risky one to make considering how Johnson’s last few movies have performed.

Red One’s Massive $250 Million Budget Only Makes Things Worse

The Bar For Success Is High

Somehow, Red One’s outlook has only gotten worse over time too. This largely stems from reports that Red One’s budget is $250 million, if not higher, after various delays. I wouldn’t be that concerned about the cost if the movie was still going straight to Prime Video, as massive budgets for star-studded streaming action movies are somewhat normal now. But now that Red One is going to theaters, its box office will be judged on its own merits without any grace for whatever value the film’s performance on Prime Video later on has for the studio.

This means that Red One needs to make at least $500 million at the box office for anyone to realistically call the movie a financial success for Johnson or Amazon. It is commonly said that a movie needs to double its budget to break even, while anything significantly more makes it profitable. I’d completely understand Amazon thinking Red One could make that much money in theaters if it was coming out between 2013 and 2019. But since we’re in 2024 and Johnson is in a slump, the $250 million production seems likely to become a significant box office bomb.

Dwayne Johnson Has A Better Box Office Bet Lined Up For After Red One

He’s Returning To A Major Hit

If Red One crashes and burns at the box office like I suspect, the sting for Dwayne Johnson will be significant. The only good news for him is that it won’t have to last long. That’s because he already has a sure-fire box office hit lined up to release only two weeks later.

Dwayne Johnson is all but guaranteed to have a huge box office success on his hands when Moana 2 releases on November 27, 2024. The first movie remains one of his highest-grossing films, and its popularity has grown over the years on Disney+. Moana 2 is surely going to continue Disney’s dominance at the box office in 2024. That’s great news for Dwayne Johnson as it can help quickly erase Red One’s performance from headlines as he keeps the focus on how well the Moana sequel does.