Once the government’s contentious prohibition on American XL bully dogs in England and Wales takes effect tonight at midnight, owners lacking an exemption certificate—obtained through a payment nearing £100 per animal, alongside evidence of third-party liability insurance and completed registration before noon today—will face little recourse but to euthanize their dogs. Alternatively, they might opt to keep their pets concealed, a choice with potentially dire repercussions.
Forecasts indicate shelters are preparing for a surge in abandoned dogs and an uptick in injuries resulting from owners’ misguided attempts at euthanasia. According to senior veterinarian David Martin, who advises 900 veterinary practices nationwide, there’s a potential increase in attacks by XL bullies within homes: “We’ve observed many fatal attacks occurring indoors or when dogs escape. If these dogs become frustrated due to lack of exercise, could this elevate the risk of more home-based attacks?”
Martin is also apprehensive that individuals seeking aggressive dogs for status symbols might shift to different breeds. Insights from former XL bully breeders suggest a shift toward the Caucasian Shepherd—a breed reputedly larger, more potent, and potentially more perilous in inexperienced hands.
The XL bully ban could exemplify an unintended consequence, termed a “boomerang” in my book “How to Expect the Unexpected.” These are actions with ostensibly good intentions that veer significantly off course due to insufficient consideration of potential outcomes.
A subset of such consequences, witnessed in past British governmental actions, are termed perverse incentives. These incentives, aimed at achieving specific goals, unexpectedly produce opposite results.
Another term for this phenomenon is the cobra effect, originating from a historical anecdote during the British Raj in India. Authorities in Delhi, concerned about venomous snakes, offered rewards for each cobra carcass brought in. Initially successful, the scheme backfired when opportunistic individuals bred cobras for profit. When authorities halted the rewards, the breeders released the surplus cobras, exacerbating the problem.
Similar missteps occurred in Afghanistan, where efforts to curb opium production inadvertently led to increased cultivation due to poorly designed incentive schemes.
Whether the XL bully ban will yield unintended consequences remains uncertain. However, without stricter regulations on dog ownership, it’s improbable that the ban alone will effectively address the UK’s issue with dangerous dogs.
